Archive

Posts Tagged ‘elections’

An invisible line and two Presidents

December 6, 2010 Leave a comment

Cote d’Ivoire: The World urging calm

After more than four years of delay, the citizens of Cote d’Ivoire have gone to the polls to vote in the first free and fair elections since the end their ethnoreligious civil war in 2007. After the first round of voting, neither of the two prominent contenders, current President Laurent Gbagbo and the main opposition challenger Alassane Ouattara, gained the percentage needed to avoid a runoff. That second-round election took place on November 28. Since then, the country has moved from pre-election tension to post-election dystopia. As the world watches and springs into conflict-avoidance, the precarity of the political landscape threatens to pull another generation of Ivorians into civil war.

The first dramatic salvo was fired on Thursday when Mr. Gbagbo’s representative at the Electoral Commission grabbed early results from a Commission official, who was about to read them to awaiting media, declared them fraudulent and ripped the result slip to pieces. When the Electoral Commission was able to avoid the reigning President’s political followers (re: lackeys), it certified Mr. Outtara to be the winner. (Confirmed and backed by countries across the world, as well.) Almost immediately, the Constitutional Court (in a preposterously partisan move) challenged the Commissions’s legitimacy and both players, respectively, swore themselves in as the new President of Cote d’Ivoire.

This all leads us, once again, to watching Cote d’Ivoire teeter on the proverbial high wire. From a pragmatic standpoint, it was hard to imagine the country’s return to democracy to be anything less than tumultuous. For all intensive purposes the civil war has never ended. The Forces Nouvelles (New Forces) Rebels still control the northern part of the country and the two most insidious issues, religious marginalization and ethnic tensions, are still simmering below the surface. So have any of these grievances been assuaged since the laying down of arms in 2007? No, not really.

Cote d’Ivoire is divided by an invisible but steadfastly unbreakable fault line. It is drawn between the Muslim, migrant-infused north and the “Ivorian,” Christian South. This election highlights the continued tension surrounding ethnicity and religion. Predictably, President Gbagbo, from the south, is Christian. Mr. Ouattara, from the north, is Muslim. It is problematic dichotomy personified. The mistrust that both sides are seeded with, due to past deeds committed by the villainous “other,” will be exceedingly difficult to overcome peacefully.

The international community, for its part, has not sat on its collective hands as the clock to chaos ticks away.  The African Union immediately dispatched former South African Prime Minister Thabo Mbeki to broker a quick fix solution and the World Bank and African Development Bank have urged calm. Unfortunately, as I sit here, I am unconvinced that there is an expedited, agreeable-to-all solution to the mineral-rich country’s woes. Trust, fair distribution of wealth and equal political access for all will get all Ivorians there. Hopefully, for its citizens’ sake, the country will not get pulled in the opposite direction. That invisible line is looking all but impassable at the moment.

Polls and Power

July 6, 2010 Leave a comment

Statistics = Power.

As we have already discussed on the Fodder, we live in a modern America that thrives on hot button issues, attacks and diatribes. All of these are inevitably propped up by statistics cut from the cloth of conservatism, liberalism and every other conceivable “ism” under the Sun. So where do politicians, lobbyists and activists get these statistics? One word: polls. In life, statistics are power. Secularity demands it. Although it is an overwhelmingly positive progression in society, there still lie serious pitfalls in this mindset. The most prominent is the unfortunate reliance on pollsters. The vast majority of pollsters are performing a vital function of civil society. Not all are, however. What happens when a polling organization goes rogue?

Luckily, we happen to have a lovely little case study unfolding before out eyes. The Daily Kos, a liberal political blog, recently filed a law suit alleging that the polling firm, Research 2000 (R2K), skewed and possibly fabricated statistics used in Daily Kos stories. For over a year, the Daily Kos ran weekly opinion polls administered and researched by R2K. After R2K received a terrible ranking in comparison to other polling firms in early June, the Daily Kos terminated its partnership with the firm. Soon afterward a group of well-known, reliable pollsters came forward to question the overall validity of the numbers R2K was producing. Submitting a preliminary analysis of R2K’s methodological results, the group found there there was almost no statistical chance that the numbers produced by R2K were reliable. In turn, Markos Moulitsas (founder of the Daily Kos) filed the lawsuit referenced above. R2K vehemently denies any wrong doing. (For more information, Pollster.com ran an informative and scathing piece on the case this past weekend.) While this is clearly an extreme example of probable statistical tampering, it still shows the relative ease in which a person or group can change the way others argue and back up their claims. It is a growing and unnerving trend in today’s political landscape.

This is not the first, nor the last, discussion that will be had about the accuracy of polling in America. Case and point: the 2008 Presidential election. From the McCain campaign staking claims on questionable polling data to sweeping analysis of the pollster landscape, the 2008 election was riddled with whispers of inaccuracies and discrepancies. While these whispers never turned into anything meaningful, it is important remember that they were there. Furthermore, this discussion is not restricted to the 2008 Election. Who can forget the media travesty of 2004? Why did the major news networks erroneously call the election in favor of Senator John Kerry? Exit polling. Admitting flaws in 2005, these exit polls led a myriad of people, including former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, to believe Senator Kerry won the Presidency. We all know the story of what ensued after the election night controversy.

The point of bringing this developing story to you is this: be careful where you get your statistics and of seemingly problematic numbers. Before you use them to make an argument, solidify a research paper or impress a member of the opposite sex, make sure they are from a reliable source. Next time you see a graph in USA Today, on Foxnews.com, in Time, on CNN or in a textbook; check the fine print. Google the firm that is providing the numbers for that chart. It might give you pause. Always see where the numbers are coming from because in this world statistics are power.